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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Amazônia Oriental. |
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Data corrente: |
14/01/2010 |
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Data da última atualização: |
14/01/2010 |
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Autoria: |
VALLE, D.; STAUDHAMMER, C. L.; CROPPER JUNIOR, W. P.; GARDINGEN, P. R. van. |
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Afiliação: |
DENIS VALLE, DUKE UNIVERSITY / PROJETO DENDROGENE - EMBRAPA AMAZÔNIA ORIENTAL; CHRISTINA L. STAUDHAMMER, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA; WENDELL P. CROPPER, JR., UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA; PAUL R. VAN GARDINGEN, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA. |
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Título: |
The importance of multimodel projections to assess uncertainty in projections from simulation models. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2009 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Ecological applications, v. 19, n. 7, p. 1680-1692, Oct. 2009. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
Simulation models are increasingly used to gain insights regarding the longterm effect of both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and to devise and evaluate policies that aim to minimize these effects. If the uncertainty from simulation model projections is not adequately quantified and reported, modeling results might be misleading, with potentially serious implications. A method is described, based on a nested simulation design associated with multimodel projections, that allows the partitioning of the overall uncertainty in model projections into a number of different sources of uncertainty: model stochasticity, starting conditions, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty that originates from the use of key model assumptions. These sources of uncertainty are likely to be present in most simulation models. Using the forest dynamics model SYMFOR as a case study, it is shown that the uncertainty originated from the use of alternate modeling assumptions, a source of uncertainty seldom reported, can be the greatest source of uncertainty, accounting for 66–97% of the overall variance of the mean after 100 years of stand dynamics simulation. This implicitly reveals the great importance of these multimodel projections even when multiple models from independent research groups are not available. Finally, it is suggested that a weighted multimodel average (in which the weights are estimated from the data) might be substantially more precise than a simple multimodel average (equivalent to equal weights for all models) as models that strongly conflict with the data are given greatly reduced or even zero weights. The method of partitioning modeling uncertainty is likely to be useful for other simulation models, allowing for a better estimate of the uncertainty of model projections and allowing researchers to identify which data need to be collected to reduce this uncertainty. MenosSimulation models are increasingly used to gain insights regarding the longterm effect of both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and to devise and evaluate policies that aim to minimize these effects. If the uncertainty from simulation model projections is not adequately quantified and reported, modeling results might be misleading, with potentially serious implications. A method is described, based on a nested simulation design associated with multimodel projections, that allows the partitioning of the overall uncertainty in model projections into a number of different sources of uncertainty: model stochasticity, starting conditions, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty that originates from the use of key model assumptions. These sources of uncertainty are likely to be present in most simulation models. Using the forest dynamics model SYMFOR as a case study, it is shown that the uncertainty originated from the use of alternate modeling assumptions, a source of uncertainty seldom reported, can be the greatest source of uncertainty, accounting for 66–97% of the overall variance of the mean after 100 years of stand dynamics simulation. This implicitly reveals the great importance of these multimodel projections even when multiple models from independent research groups are not available. Finally, it is suggested that a weighted multimodel average (in which the weights are estimated from the data) might be substantially more precise than a simple ... Mostrar Tudo |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Divisão da variação; Multimodelo. |
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Thesagro: |
Modelo de simulação. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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Marc: |
LEADER 02526naa a2200193 a 4500
001 1580407
005 2010-01-14
008 2009 bl --- 0-- u #d
100 1 $aVALLE, D.
245 $aThe importance of multimodel projections to assess uncertainty in projections from simulation models.
260 $c2009
520 $aSimulation models are increasingly used to gain insights regarding the longterm effect of both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and to devise and evaluate policies that aim to minimize these effects. If the uncertainty from simulation model projections is not adequately quantified and reported, modeling results might be misleading, with potentially serious implications. A method is described, based on a nested simulation design associated with multimodel projections, that allows the partitioning of the overall uncertainty in model projections into a number of different sources of uncertainty: model stochasticity, starting conditions, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty that originates from the use of key model assumptions. These sources of uncertainty are likely to be present in most simulation models. Using the forest dynamics model SYMFOR as a case study, it is shown that the uncertainty originated from the use of alternate modeling assumptions, a source of uncertainty seldom reported, can be the greatest source of uncertainty, accounting for 66–97% of the overall variance of the mean after 100 years of stand dynamics simulation. This implicitly reveals the great importance of these multimodel projections even when multiple models from independent research groups are not available. Finally, it is suggested that a weighted multimodel average (in which the weights are estimated from the data) might be substantially more precise than a simple multimodel average (equivalent to equal weights for all models) as models that strongly conflict with the data are given greatly reduced or even zero weights. The method of partitioning modeling uncertainty is likely to be useful for other simulation models, allowing for a better estimate of the uncertainty of model projections and allowing researchers to identify which data need to be collected to reduce this uncertainty.
650 $aModelo de simulação
653 $aDivisão da variação
653 $aMultimodelo
700 1 $aSTAUDHAMMER, C. L.
700 1 $aCROPPER JUNIOR, W. P.
700 1 $aGARDINGEN, P. R. van.
773 $tEcological applications$gv. 19, n. 7, p. 1680-1692, Oct. 2009.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Amazônia Oriental (CPATU) |
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| Registros recuperados : 16 | |
| 2. |  | KAINER, K. A.; WADT, L. H. de O.; STAUDHAMMER, C. L. Contribuição associada aos modos de vida de populações locais e à conservação florestal. In: WADT, L. H. de O.; MAROCCOLO, J. F.; GUEDES, M. C.; SILVA, K. E. da (ed.). Castanha-da-amazônia: estudos sobre a espécie e sua cadeia de valor. Brasília, DF: Embrapa, 2023. cap. 4, p. 81-106. V. 1: Aspectos sociais, econômicos e organizacionais. ODS 2, ODS 3, ODS 8, ODS 11, ODS 12, ODS 13, ODS 17.| Tipo: Capítulo em Livro Técnico-Científico |
| Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Rondônia. |
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| 4. | | ROCHWELL, C. A.; KAINER, K. A.; OLIVEIRA, M. V. N. d'.; STAUDHAMMER, C. L.; BARALOTO, C. Logging in bamboo-dominated forests in southwestern Amazonia: caveats and opportunities for smallholder forest management. Forest Ecology and Management, Eveleigh, v. 315, n. 1, p. 202-210, Mar. 2014.| Tipo: Artigo em Periódico Indexado | Circulação/Nível: A - 1 |
| Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Acre. |
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| 11. | | KAINER, K. A.; WADT, L. H. de O.; STAUDHAMMER, C. L. Testing a silvicultural recommendation: Brazil nut responses 10 years after liana cutting. In: IUFRO WORLD CONGRESS, 24., 2014, Salt Lake. Sustaining forests, sustaining people: the role of research. Abstracts... Salt Lake: IUFRO, 2014. p. 139. (The International Forestry Review, v. 16, n. 5). Editado por: John A. Parrota; Cynthia F. Moser; Amy J. Scherzer; Nancy E. Koerth; Daryl R. Lederle.| Tipo: Resumo em Anais de Congresso |
| Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Acre. |
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| 15. | | KLIMAS, C. A.; KAINER, K. A.; WADT, L. H. de O.; STAUDHAMMER, C. L.; RIGAMONTE-AZEVEDO, V.; CORREIA, M. F.; LIMA, L. M. da S. Control of Carapa guianensis phenology and seed production at multiple scales: a five-year study exploring the influences of tree attributes, habitat heterogeneity and climate cues. Journal of Tropical Ecology, United Kingdom, v. 28, n. 1, p. 105-118, Jan. 2012.| Tipo: Artigo em Periódico Indexado | Circulação/Nível: A - 2 |
| Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Acre. |
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| 16. | | VASCONCELOS, S. S.; ZARIN, D. J.; ARAÚJO, M. M.; RANGEL-VASCONCELOS, L. G. T.; CARVALHO, C. J. R. de; STAUDHAMMER, C. L.; OLIVEIRA, F. de A. Effects of seasonality, litter removal and dry-season irrigation on litterfall quantity and quality in eastern Amazonian forest regrowth, Brazil. Journal of Tropical Ecology, v. 24, p. 27-38, 2008.| Tipo: Artigo em Periódico Indexado | Circulação/Nível: Internacional - A |
| Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Amazônia Oriental. |
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| Registros recuperados : 16 | |
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| Nenhum registro encontrado para a expressão de busca informada. |
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